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Ocean Dynamics - The existence of cross-sectionally averaged morphodynamic equilibria of tidal inlets is investigated, using a cross-sectionally averaged model, and their sensitivity to variations... 相似文献
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We present a comprehensive probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout of Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador), a quiescent but active stratovolcano known for its highly explosive behaviour. First, we developed a set of possible eruptive scenarios based on thorough field investigations, literature studies and using the Global Volcanism Program (GVP) database. Five eruption scenarios were identified, including two based on large pre-historical sub-Plinian/Plinian eruptions with eruptive parameters constrained from field investigations (One Eruption Scenario; OES) and three Eruption Range Scenarios (ERS) based on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) classification, for which eruptive parameters (i.e. erupted volume, plume height and median grainsize) were stochastically sampled within boundaries defined by VEI 3, 4 and 5. Second, the modelling was performed using the advection-diffusion model TEPHRA2 in combination with wind profiles from the NOAA NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 database. We performed 1,000 runs for each eruption scenario, stochastically sampling a wind profile (OES and ERS) and a set of eruptive parameters (ERS only) at each run. Using the conditional probabilities of occurrence of eruption of VEI 3, 4 and 5 calculated from the GVP catalogue, we assessed the probability of tephra accumulation in a given time window. Based on the GVP database, a simple Poisson model shows that an eruption of VEI???3 has a 36?% probability of occurrence in the next 10?years. Finally, the hazard assessment was compiled based on three different outputs, including (i) probability maps for a given tephra accumulation, (ii) isomass maps for a given probability value and (iii) hazard curves for a given location. We conclude that the area west of Cotopaxi is exposed to light to severe tephra fallout for the smallest eruption magnitude considered (i.e. VEI 3). This area comprises a main communication axis (Panamerican Highway) topographically constrained at the bottom of the Interandean Valley, as well as the capital Quito and the town of Latacunga. In a companion paper, Biass et?al. (this volume) propose a method for a rapid risk assessment for tephra fallout using global and easily accessible data and the hazard assessment described here. 相似文献
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The radiological environment of Svalbard 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Justin P. Gwynn Mark Dowdall Corine Davids Øyvind G. Selnæs Bjørn Lind 《Polar research》2004,23(2):167-180
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A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador-Part II: vulnerability and risk assessment 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
In order to develop efficient strategies for risk mitigation and emergency management, planners require the assessment of both the expected hazard (frequency and magnitude) and the vulnerability of exposed elements. This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to produce qualitative to semi-qualitative thematic risk assessments for tephra fallout around explosive volcanoes, designed to operate with datasets of variable precision and resolution depending on data availability. Due to the constant increase in population density around volcanoes and to the wide dispersal of tephra from volcanic plumes, a large range of threats, such as roof collapses, damage to crops, blockage of vital lifelines and health problems, concern even remote communities. To address these issues, we have assessed the vulnerability and the risk levels for five themes relevant to tephra fallout: (1) social, (2) economic, (3) environmental, (4) physical and (5) territorial. Risk and vulnerability indices for each theme are averaged to the fourth level of administrative unit (parroquia, parish). In a companion paper, Biass and Bonadonna (this volume) present a probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) using the advection-diffusion model TEPHRA2, which is based on field investigations and a global eruption database (Global Volcanism Program, GVP). The scope of this paper is to present a new approach to risk assessment specifically designed for tephra fallout, based on a comprehensive hazard assessment of Cotopaxi volcano. Our results show that an eruption of moderate magnitude (i.e. VEI 4) would result in the possible collapse of ??9,000 houses in the two parishes located close to the volcano. Our study also reveals a high risk on agriculture, closely linked to the economic sector, and a possible accessibility problem in case of an eruption of any size, as tephra is likely to affect the only major road running from Quito to Latacunga (Panamerican Highway). As a result, this method fits into the ongoing effort to better characterize and evaluate volcanic risk, and more specifically the risk associated with tephra fallout. Although this methodology relies on some assumptions, it can serve as a rapid and efficient starting point for further investigations of the risk level around explosive volcanoes. 相似文献
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Corine Glé Yolanda Del Amo Benoît Sautour Pierre Laborde Pierre Chardy 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008
Seasonal and spatial variations of phytoplankton primary production were studied using a high frequency sampling strategy in the external (ENW) and internal (INW) part of Arcachon Bay, during 2002 and 2003. In order to better assess the availability of nutrients and their relationship with phytoplankton primary production, nutrient variability was studied in relation to environmental conditions and phytoplankton production. During winter, when primary production rates were the lowest, nutrient concentrations were maximal but did not show excessive levels compared to highly urbanised areas. Seasonal and spatial variations of nutrient concentrations (especially DIN-nitrate + nitrite + ammonium- and Si) were largely influenced by Leyre River loads coupled with high tidal exchange with the Atlantic Ocean creating a nutrient gradient between the INW and ENW. By February, diatom growth leads to an early severe nutrient depletion in the entire bay. Examination of nutrient ratios showed that the potential limiting nutrient during spring was P in 2003, and Si in 2002. During summer 2003, N and Si concentrations reached their lowest values, and nutrient ratios revealed a N-deficient environment, more pronounced in the INW. The high Si:N ratios during this period might be explained by (1) important N-uptake by all autotroph communities and (2) benthic-pelagic coupling with high Si regeneration. This study shows that nutrient levels in Arcachon Bay seem to play an important role in the control of phytoplankton primary production rates during the productive period and explain their spatial, seasonal and inter-annual variability. Our estimates of annual integrated phytoplankton primary production (103 g C m−2 y−1) place this bay within the low to moderate phytoplankton primary production systems. 相似文献
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Direct 40Ar/39Ar K‐feldspar dating of Late Permian—Early Triassic brittle faulting in northern Norway 
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下载免费PDF全文 While the offshore post‐Caledonian extensional history of the north Norwegian passive margin is well constrained, the tectonic relationship between onshore and offshore regions is less clear because of limited age constraints on the timing of rifting onshore. 40Ar/39Ar dating of K‐feldspar from hydrothermally altered fault rocks in a Precambrian gneiss complex in northern Norway was used to study the timing of extensional faulting onshore. In addition, 40Ar/39Ar dating of K‐feldspar from the host rock provided insight into the regional rock cooling history prior to brittle deformation. Results indicated a dominant Late Permian–Early Triassic (~265–244 Ma) faulting event and found no evidence for later reactivation, which has been documented offshore. The region cooled to below the closure temperature for 40Ar/39Ar K‐feldspar in the Carboniferous to Early Permian, prior to the main brittle faulting event. 40Ar/39Ar dating of fault zone K‐feldspar products provided a means to date brittle faulting events. 相似文献
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Impact of partial steps and momentum advection schemes in a global ocean circulation model at eddy-permitting resolution 总被引：4，自引：6，他引：4
Barnier Bernard Gurvan Madec Thierry Penduff Jean-Marc Molines Anne-Marie Treguier Julien Le Sommer Aike Beckmann Arne Biastoch Claus Böning Joachim Dengg Corine Derval Edmée Durand Sergei Gulev Elizabeth Remy Claude Talandier Sébastien Theetten Mathew Maltrud Julie McClean Beverly De Cuevas 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(5-6):543-567
Series of sensitivity tests were performed with a z-coordinate, global eddy-permitting (1/4°) ocean/sea-ice model (the ORCA-R025 model configuration developed for the DRAKKAR project) to carefully evaluate the impact of recent state-of-the-art numerical schemes on model solutions. The combination of an energy–enstrophy conserving (EEN) scheme for momentum advection with a partial step (PS) representation of the bottom topography yields significant improvements in the mean circulation. Well known biases in the representation of western boundary currents, such as in the Atlantic the detachment of the Gulf Stream, the path of the North Atlantic Current, the location of the Confluence, and the strength of the Zapiola Eddy in the south Atlantic, are partly corrected. Similar improvements are found in the Pacific, Indian, and Southern Oceans, and characteristics of the mean flow are generally much closer to observations. Comparisons with other state-of-the-art models show that the ORCA-R025 configuration generally performs better at similar resolution. In addition, the model solution is often comparable to solutions obtained at 1/6 or 1/10° resolution in some aspects concerning mean flow patterns and distribution of eddy kinetic energy. Although the reasons for these improvements are not analyzed in detail in this paper, evidence is shown that the combination of EEN with PS reduces numerical noise near the bottom, which is likely to affect current–topography interactions in a systematic way. We conclude that significant corrections of the mean biases presently seen in general circulation model solutions at eddy-permitting resolution can still be expected from the development of numerical methods, which represent an alternative to increasing resolution. 相似文献
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Raphaël Pik Catherine Deniel Christian Coulon Gezahegn Yirgu Corine Hofmann Dereje Ayalew 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1998,81(1-2)
The extensive, complex, continental flood basalt (CFB) province which occurs in Ethiopia and Yemen consists of Oligocene prerift volcanism related to the Africa–Arabia continental break-up. Basalts from the northwestern Ethiopian Plateau exhibit a particularly large range of compositions and, for the first time in the Afro-Arabian CFB province, low-Ti basalts have been encountered. Major and some trace element data have been used to identify distinct geochemical groups and evaluate the role of differentiation processes. Three magma types have been distinguished: two high-Ti groups (HT1 and HT2) and one low-Ti group (LT). The transitional to tholeiitic LT suite exhibits low TiO2 (1–2.6%), Fe2O3* (10.5–14.8%), CaO/Al2O3 (0.4–0.75), Nb/La (0.55–0.85) and high SiO2 (47–51%). In contrast, the HT2 suite exhibits high TiO2 (2.6–5%), Fe2O3* (13.1–14.7%), CaO/Al2O3 (0.9–1.43), Nb/La (1.1–1.4) and low SiO2 (44–48.3%). The HT1 series is intermediate between the LT and HT2 groups. These three groups of lavas originated from different parental magmas. They display distinct differentiation trends, either controlled by the removal of a shallow level gabbroic (Pl+Ol+Cpx) assemblage (LT and HT1 suites) or by deeper Ol+Cpx fractionation (HT2 suite). Most of this thick continental flood lava pile was emplaced over a short time interval (about 1–2 Ma). The three contrasted magma types do not reflect a temporal evolution of their sources but rather a strong spatial control. Indeed, the northwestern Plateau may be subdivided into two different subprovinces as all the low-Ti basalts are located in the northern part of the plateau, and the high-Ti basalts are exposed in the eastern and southern parts. The LT and HT1 basalts display compositional ranges similar to those of the low- and high-Ti groups from other main CFB provinces (e.g. Parana, Deccan, Karoo, Siberia, …). However, the HT2 group exhibits extreme OIB-like compositions. This unusual geochemical signature suggests the involvement of deep mantle in the genesis of the HT2 magmas. The LT compositions rather reflect the participation of the continental lithosphere, through mantle derived melts and/or crustal contamination. 相似文献
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Bernard Barnier Gurvan Madec Thierry Penduff Jean-Marc Molines Anne-Marie Treguier Julien Le Sommer Aike Beckmann Arne Biastoch Claus Böning Joachim Dengg Corine Derval Edmée Durand Sergei Gulev Elizabeth Remy Claude Talandier Sébastien Theetten Mathew Maltrud Julie McClean Beverly De Cuevas 《Ocean Dynamics》2009,59(3):537-537
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